Unc Luster
NCAA Weekly Dish – 01/06/06 by Matt Fargo
With conference season ready to begin its first full Saturday, Matt Fargo takes a look at three big games on tap that you cannot miss.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Marquette Golden Eagles 12:00 PM ET
Cincinnati heads to Marquette for the second C-USA game of the season for both teams. Sorry, make that the second Big East game for both teams. In what was always billed as the one of the top C-USA games of the year, the series shifts to a bigger conference but no luster is lost in this battle. It’s early and both teams are only 1-0 in conference action but this is a huge game for both sides to get an early jump in the super conference.
Marquette comes in off a huge win on Tuesday over then second ranked Connecticut so trying to match that effort for a second straight game will be difficult. The good news for the Golden Eagles is that they remain home for this one as a trip on the road would have been extremely tough. They are 7-1 at home this year with the only loss coming at home in their opener to a strong Winthrop team. This is the sixth straight home game for Marquette with the previous five all won by double digits.
Cincinnati easily handled DePaul on Wednesday in its first ever Big East game and will now be playing its first true road game since December 10th. It will only be the second road game all season for the Bearcats but they took care of Vanderbilt in the first one, handing the Commodores their only home loss of the season. The Cincinnati offense has been on a tear, scoring 75 or more points in all but one game this season as it is averaging 83.1 ppg on the season.
This has been an interesting series over the past four seasons. Marquette had three straight wins starting in 2001, followed by two straight wins by Cincinnati, two straight wins by Marquette and then two straight wins by Cincinnati. The Golden Eagles have covered seven of the last nine meetings and have won three straight on their home floor. The defenses of both teams are solid but the offenses have been scoring enough to send 16 of the 20 combined lined games over the total.
Colorado Buffaloes at Texas Longhorns 4:00 PM ET
This is a good way to kick off the Big XII season as two teams a combined 21-3 square off in Austin. This matchup usually doesn’t bring a lot of excitement to the table and could be a dud again this time around. Colorado started last year a solid 8-3 in non-conference action and then traveled to Oklahoma for its Big XII opener and was smashed by 30 points. Texas does have one loss at home this season and has yet to defeat a quality opponent on its home floor.
The Buffaloes may be the country’s most surprising team thus far as they are off to a 10-1 start with the only loss coming against state rival Colorado St. Colorado was picked to finish middle of the pack in the Big XII and that very well could happen as the hot start could be a façade due to it playing the 323rd ranked schedule in the entire nation. Wins over UNC-Wilmington and Penn look good but the Buffaloes have also played four teams ranked 285th or worse.
Texas has recovered nicely from back-to-back losses with three straight wins including a big one at Memphis last time out. As mentioned earlier, the only real test at home came against Tennessee and the Longhorns were blasted by 17 points. Texas will be facing the second highest scoring team in the country but it has the defense to combat that. The Longhorns are allowing opponents to shoot only 36.8 percent from the floor which is good for 9th in the country. It will be strength vs. strength and the defense usually wins.
Texas should be fully focused as the Buffaloes took both meetings last year but neither of those games were played in Texas. The Longhorns have won the last three games at the Frank Erwin Center and they have posted a perfect 7-0 mark in Big 12 Conference openers in the Rick Barnes era. Texas has won 51 of its last 55 home games so Colorado has its hands full.
Northern Iowa Panthers at Missouri St. Bears 8:00 PM ET
This one is certainly down on the radar screen but could be one of the best games of the day. These are two mid-major teams but both are ranked in the top 25 in my power rankings thanks to extremely difficult non-conference slates to start the season. The Missouri Valley Conference is ahead of the pack as both of these teams already have four conference games under their belts and both sit at 3-1, trailing Southern Illinois by a half game.
The Panthers were picked by most to take home the MVC title but if they do it, it won’t be a runaway. Northern Iowa has two road losses on the season, the last coming against conference foe Bradley in overtime. It has won its last three games by double digits and brings in some big momentum after a huge road win at Wichita St. on Thursday. The Panthers held their last three opponents to 61 points or less but face a tough offense as the Bears have scored 80 or more points in three straight games.
Missouri St. is also on a three-game winning streak with the last two coming on the road. The Bears are a perfect 6-0 at home this year but have not defeated anyone of real significance on their home floor. Overall, they have faced four teams ranked in the top 100, going 2-2 in those games including a 2-0 mark at home, winning those by an average of 27.5 ppg. The 10-2 start by Missouri St. is the second best start in 24 years played at the Division 1 level.
Missouri St. won the last meeting in the first round of last season’s conference tournament which snapped a four-game losing streak to the Panthers. Northern Iowa won both regular season meetings last year including a nine-point win at Hammons Student Center. The Bears started last season going 1-6 in the MVC before making a late run and almost securing the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Seven of the last 10 meetings have been decided by six points or less so expect another barnburner on Saturday.
If you are looking for consistent winning in college basketball, look no further. No one has dominated the college ranks like Matt Fargo who has posted a 223-145 ATS record (60.6 percent) over the past two seasons! No one is better and no one will be better – it’s as simple as that! Grab the full season for only $599 and start winning today!
About the Author
Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm
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